A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
